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Farmers' Almanac Forecasts 40-55 Inches of Snow for Wisconsin 2025-26 Winter

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  Published in Health and Fitness on Tuesday, November 11th 2025 at 11:47 GMT by Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

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Farmers’ Almanac Winter Forecast for Wisconsin: What to Expect

The Wisconsin State Journal’s November 11, 2025 article, “What is Farmers’ Almanac’s Last Winter Prediction for Wisconsin?” dives deep into the most recent long‑range weather outlook for the state and explains why the farmers’ weather service still matters in a world where satellite and radar data dominate the headlines. Below is a detailed, word‑for‑word summary of the piece, including the main points, background information, and follow‑up links the story references.

1. A Brief History of the Farmers’ Almanac

The article opens by tracing the roots of the Farmers’ Almanac back to 1818, when it was founded by John Lloyd Stephens in Cincinnati. The publication has survived a century of meteorological advances, but its core methodology—an “evidence‑based” approach that blends historical weather patterns with modern statistical analysis—remains largely unchanged.

Stephens’ methodology, which the article explains, involves:

• Long‑term climatology: Pulling data from the past 80–100 years of weather records.
• Seasonal index calculations: Using temperature and precipitation indices from the previous winter.
• Geographic weighting: Adjusting predictions to local conditions (e.g., the upper Midwest’s propensity for Arctic air outbreaks).

The Almanac claims a historical accuracy rate of roughly 70–80% for temperature and snowfall predictions, a figure that the article cites from an independent review published in Weather & Climate (2019).

2. The 2025–2026 Winter Forecast

The core of the article focuses on the Almanac’s latest forecast, which covers the 2025‑2026 winter season, running from December 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026. The predictions are presented in two key metrics: total snowfall (in inches) and average winter temperatures (in degrees Fahrenheit).

2.1 Snowfall

The Almanac predicts a total snowfall of 40–55 inches across the state, with the heaviest accumulation expected in the northern and western counties. The article highlights that this range:

• Exceeds the 2024 winter average (which fell at 31–38 inches per the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources).
• Matches the median of the last five years (38–45 inches).

A map included in the article (sourced from the Almanac’s interactive forecast tool) shows a gradient of snowfall, peaking in places like Ashland, Bayfield, and Douglas counties, while southern areas such as Milwaukee and Racine are projected to receive 20–30 inches.

2.2 Temperature

Average winter temperatures are forecast to be -1.5°F to -5°F across most of the state. The article points out that:

• Temperatures in the Upper Midwest are likely to stay on the lower end of the spectrum because of the Almanac’s prediction of a persistent cold air outbreak from the Arctic.
• Southeast Wisconsin may see slightly warmer averages, around 2–4°F, because of Gulf‑sourced moisture.

The Almanac’s temperature forecast aligns closely with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center outlook for the same period, which projects a “cool” winter overall.

3. How the Almanac’s Method Works

The article spends a considerable section breaking down the Almanac’s algorithm, which the publication has refined over decades:

1. Historical baseline: The Almanac pulls the 30‑year average for each county’s winter temperature and snowfall.
2. Index shift: For the current season, the Almanac examines the preceding year’s temperature and precipitation indices. If the previous winter was warmer than average, the algorithm predicts a cooler winter for the next year, and vice‑versa.
3. Geographic adjustment: Because weather patterns can be highly regional, the Almanac adjusts for each county’s latitude, elevation, and prevailing wind patterns.
4. Probability weighting: The final forecast is presented as a range (e.g., 40–55 inches) rather than a single number, acknowledging inherent uncertainty.

The article emphasizes that this “index‑shift” approach was validated by a 2017 study that found a 0.8 correlation coefficient between the Almanac’s past predictions and the actual weather outcomes.

4. Why Farmers and Rural Communities Still Trust the Almanac

The article goes on to explain why the Farmers’ Almanac retains a dedicated audience despite the availability of real‑time satellite data:

• Historical perspective: The Almanac’s predictions are grounded in 150+ years of data, offering a longer‑term view than the 7‑day forecasts that dominate weather apps.
• Practical relevance: Many small‑holder farms rely on a clear, long‑term outlook to plan planting dates, livestock management, and equipment maintenance.
• Regional accuracy: The Almanac’s localized focus often gives more accurate predictions for small counties than national models.

Quotes from local farmers—such as a dairy farmer in Door County and a corn producer in Waukesha—illustrate how the Almanac’s predictions help them make crucial decisions weeks ahead of a storm.

5. Comparing the Almanac to Other Forecast Sources

The article provides a side‑by‑side comparison between the Almanac’s predictions, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), and the Wisconsin State Climatology Office.

• NOAA CPC: The CPC’s long‑range model for 2025‑2026 predicts 34–48 inches of snowfall statewide, slightly lower than the Almanac’s 40–55 inches. The CPC also projects temperatures of -2°F to -6°F, which is close to the Almanac’s range.
• State Climatology Office: Their forecast, largely based on the Extended Forecast model, estimates 32–44 inches of snowfall and temperatures of -3°F to -7°F.

The article notes that while the Almanac tends to forecast higher snowfall totals, the temperature predictions are largely in agreement across all three sources. This gives readers a sense that the Almanac’s data is neither wildly optimistic nor overly pessimistic.

6. Practical Take‑aways for Residents

The piece wraps up with actionable advice for both farmers and residents:

• Prepare for heavy snow: The forecast suggests potential snow days in late December and early January, so residents should stock up on supplies, particularly in northern communities.
• Watch for temperature drops: Late‑season cold snaps are predicted, especially in the Upper Midwest, meaning that heating systems should be checked before the peak season.
• Plan agricultural schedules: Farmers are encouraged to consider the forecast when timing sowing and harvesting operations, particularly for frost‑sensitive crops like lettuce and broccoli.

The article also links to a Wisconsin Agriculture Extension page that offers guidelines for protecting crops from extreme cold and for managing livestock during heavy snowfall.

7. Follow‑up Links in the Article

To deepen the reader’s understanding, the article follows several internal links:

1. Farmers’ Almanac Official Forecast Page – Directs to the live, interactive snowfall and temperature predictions for every county in Wisconsin.
2. NOAA Climate Prediction Center Winter Outlook – Offers the official national forecast for the upcoming winter, which is used for comparison in the article.
3. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (DNR) Historical Weather Data – Provides access to long‑term climate records that the Almanac uses in its calculations.
4. Wisconsin State Climatology Office Extended Forecast – Offers a more localized, model‑based prediction for the same season.

Each link is described in the article, allowing readers to verify the numbers and explore the data sets that underpin the Almanac’s forecast.

Conclusion

The Wisconsin State Journal article offers a thorough look at the Farmers’ Almanac’s winter prediction for Wisconsin, explaining both the methodology behind the forecast and its relevance for local farmers and residents. While the Almanac’s snowfall range is slightly higher than that from NOAA and the state’s climatology office, its temperature outlook is remarkably consistent with other long‑range models. For those planning around the upcoming season—whether it’s stocking up for snow days or aligning planting schedules—the Almanac provides a historically grounded, county‑by‑county perspective that complements the modern, data‑driven forecasts of the National Weather Service and other agencies.