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Menefee, Edwards in dead heat for 18th Congressional District special election, UH Hobby School survey finds | Houston Public Media

Menefee and Edwards Locked in Tight Race for Texas's 18th Congressional District Special Election, UH Hobby School Poll Reveals

In a closely watched special election to fill the vacant seat in Texas's 18th Congressional District, Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards are in a virtual dead heat, according to a new survey released by the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs. The poll, conducted amid heightened political tensions following the death of longtime incumbent Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, underscores the competitive nature of the race in one of Houston's most influential Democratic strongholds. With the election set for November, the findings highlight shifting voter priorities, demographic dynamics, and the potential for a runoff, as neither candidate has yet secured a commanding lead.

The survey, which polled 800 likely voters in the district between July 15 and July 25, shows Menefee garnering 28% support, while Edwards trails closely with 27%. This razor-thin margin falls well within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, effectively tying the two frontrunners. Trailing behind are state Rep. Jarvis Johnson with 15%, Houston City Council member Letitia Plummer at 12%, and businessman Robert Slater with 8%. A significant portion of respondents—10%—remain undecided, which could prove decisive in what is shaping up to be a fragmented field. The poll also indicates that no candidate is likely to reach the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, setting the stage for a prolonged battle that could extend into December.

Texas's 18th District, encompassing much of central and eastern Houston, has long been a Democratic bastion, represented by Jackson Lee for nearly three decades until her passing earlier this year from pancreatic cancer. Her legacy as a fierce advocate for civil rights, criminal justice reform, and economic development in underserved communities looms large over the race. Voters in the district, which is majority-minority with significant African American and Hispanic populations, are grappling with issues like affordable housing, healthcare access, flood mitigation, and public safety—topics that have dominated candidate forums and campaign ads.

Christian Menefee, who made history in 2020 as the youngest and first African American Harris County Attorney, has positioned himself as a progressive reformer with a track record of challenging powerful interests. His campaign emphasizes environmental justice, voting rights, and criminal justice reform, drawing on his legal battles against polluters and his efforts to expand access to legal aid. Supporters praise Menefee's outsider appeal, noting his willingness to take on the fossil fuel industry in a state dominated by energy giants. "Christian is the fighter we need in Washington," said one poll respondent, a retired teacher from the Third Ward, reflecting a sentiment echoed by many who see him as a continuation of Jackson Lee's combative style.

Amanda Edwards, a Harvard-educated attorney and former at-large council member, counters with her own blend of experience and innovation. Having run unsuccessfully for mayor in 2019, Edwards has built a reputation as a pragmatic problem-solver focused on economic development, education, and infrastructure. Her campaign highlights her work on the city's budget and her advocacy for small businesses, appealing to voters concerned about post-pandemic recovery. Edwards has also leaned into her identity as a young Black woman leader, aiming to inspire a new generation in a district where representation matters deeply. "Amanda brings fresh ideas and proven results," noted a supporter in the poll, a small business owner from Sunnyside, who appreciated her emphasis on job creation.

The poll delves deeper into voter demographics, revealing intriguing splits that could influence turnout. Among African American voters, who make up about 40% of the district's electorate, Menefee holds a slight edge with 32% support compared to Edwards's 29%. Edwards, however, performs stronger among Hispanic voters (25% of the district), leading Menefee 30% to 24%. Women voters favor Edwards by a margin of 29% to 26%, while Menefee edges out among men, 30% to 25%. Age also plays a role: younger voters under 35 lean toward Menefee (35%), possibly drawn to his progressive stance, whereas those over 65 prefer Edwards (32%), valuing her council experience.

Endorsements have added fuel to the fire. Menefee has secured backing from progressive groups like the Texas Organizing Project and several labor unions, which could mobilize grassroots efforts. Edwards, meanwhile, has endorsements from business leaders, former Mayor Sylvester Turner, and some of Jackson Lee's allies, providing her with fundraising advantages. Campaign finance reports show Edwards raising over $1.2 million, slightly outpacing Menefee's $1 million, though both lag behind the war chests of past incumbents.

Beyond the horse-race numbers, the Hobby School survey explores issue priorities. A whopping 45% of respondents cited economic inequality and job opportunities as their top concern, followed by healthcare (22%) and crime (18%). Climate change and flooding, perennial issues in flood-prone Houston, ranked high at 15%, reflecting the district's vulnerability after events like Hurricane Harvey. Menefee scores well on environmental issues, with 40% of voters viewing him as the strongest on climate action, while Edwards is seen as more effective on economic development by 38%.

Analysts at the Hobby School point to the fragmented field as a key factor in the deadlock. "With multiple credible candidates splitting the vote, this race is anyone's game," said Renée Cross, senior executive director of the Hobby School. "The undecided voters and those supporting lesser-known candidates could swing the outcome, especially if turnout is low." The poll's methodology, involving a mix of landline, cell phone, and online responses weighted to reflect the district's demographics, adds credibility to these insights.

The special election's timing coincides with the general election, potentially boosting turnout but also complicating messaging amid national races. Democrats are keen to hold the seat, which is safely blue but could see depressed enthusiasm without Jackson Lee's star power. Republicans have fielded no major challengers, making this effectively a Democratic primary redux.

As the campaign intensifies, both Menefee and Edwards are ramping up outreach. Menefee recently held a town hall in Acres Homes, focusing on police reform, while Edwards launched a door-knocking initiative in the East End targeting Hispanic voters. Debates scheduled for August could provide breakout moments, with candidates vying to claim Jackson Lee's mantle.

Voters like Maria Gonzalez, a nurse from the Northside, encapsulate the dilemma: "I respect both, but I need someone who will fight for healthcare like Sheila did." With early voting starting in October, the race's outcome may hinge on who best channels that legacy while addressing modern challenges.

This dead heat signals not just a competitive election but a generational shift in Houston politics. As the district evolves—with growing Asian American and immigrant communities— the winner will need to bridge divides and deliver results. The Hobby School plans follow-up polls, but for now, the message is clear: Texas's 18th is up for grabs, and every vote counts.

The survey also sheds light on broader trends in urban Democratic politics. In a post-Jackson Lee era, candidates are navigating a landscape where identity, experience, and ideology intersect. Menefee's rise reflects the growing influence of young progressives inspired by figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, while Edwards embodies a more centrist, results-oriented approach akin to Kamala Harris's early career. This dynamic could preview shifts in other majority-minority districts nationwide.

Fundraising disparities, though narrow, highlight resource challenges. Menefee's campaign has relied on small-dollar donations, averaging $50 per contributor, fostering a grassroots image. Edwards, with ties to corporate donors, has larger checks but faces criticism for being "establishment." Such narratives could sway undecideds, particularly independents who comprise 8% of the poll's sample.

Community leaders are weighing in. Rev. William Lawson, a civil rights icon, has urged unity, warning against division. "This district needs a unifier," he said in a recent statement. Endorsements from national figures like President Biden or former President Obama could tip scales, though none have materialized yet.

Looking ahead, if a runoff occurs—as the poll suggests is likely—it would be held in December, extending uncertainty. Historical precedents, like the 2015 special election in Mississippi, show runoffs can favor candidates with strong mobilization. Both campaigns are preparing, building volunteer armies and digital ad buys.

In essence, this race is a microcosm of Democratic soul-searching: progressivism versus pragmatism, youth versus experience. As Houstonians head to the polls, the choice will shape not just the district's future but signal directions for Texas Democrats in an increasingly purple state.

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Read the Full Houston Public Media Article at:
[ https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/polls/2025/07/29/527369/menefee-edwards-in-a-dead-heat-in-tx-18-special-election-uh-hobby-school-survey-finds/ ]