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Big blow for Thailand''s PM as major party exits coalition

Thailand's Coalition Government in Turmoil: Bhumjaithai Party Exits Alliance with PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra

BANGKOK – In a significant blow to Thailand's fragile political stability, the Bhumjaithai Party has announced its decision to withdraw from the ruling coalition government led by Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. This move, revealed on Wednesday, comes amid escalating tensions within the alliance and raises fresh questions about the longevity of Paetongtarn's administration, which has been in power for less than a year. The departure of Bhumjaithai, one of the coalition's largest partners, could destabilize the government and force a potential reshuffle or even early elections, underscoring the volatile nature of Thai politics where alliances shift rapidly in response to internal disputes and external pressures.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the 38-year-old daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, assumed office following the controversial dismissal of her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, by the Constitutional Court. Her rise to power was seen as a continuation of the Pheu Thai Party's influence, backed by a coalition that included several key players like Bhumjaithai. However, the coalition has been plagued by disagreements over policy directions, particularly on issues such as economic reforms, cannabis legalization, and responses to ongoing protests. Bhumjaithai's exit is not entirely unexpected, as whispers of discontent have circulated in political circles for weeks, but the timing and abruptness of the announcement have caught many off guard.

The Bhumjaithai Party, led by Anutin Charnvirakul, holds a substantial 70 seats in Thailand's 500-member House of Representatives, making it a pivotal force in the coalition. Anutin, who previously served as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior, cited irreconcilable differences with the Pheu Thai-led government as the primary reason for the pullout. In a press conference held at the party's headquarters in Bangkok, Anutin emphasized that the decision was made after careful deliberation by the party's executive committee. "We have always prioritized the interests of the Thai people, but recent developments have made it clear that our visions no longer align with the current administration," Anutin stated. He alluded to frustrations over the government's handling of key legislative agendas, including delays in infrastructure projects and what he described as a lack of consultation on major decisions.

This schism traces its roots back to the formation of the coalition after the 2023 general elections, where no single party secured a clear majority. Pheu Thai, with its 141 seats, formed the government by partnering with conservative and military-aligned groups, including Bhumjaithai, which has historically positioned itself as a centrist force advocating for rural development and public health initiatives. Bhumjaithai gained prominence for its role in decriminalizing cannabis in 2022, a policy that has since become a point of contention amid rising concerns over unregulated use and its impact on society. Critics within the party have accused the Pheu Thai government of backtracking on commitments to support such progressive reforms, leading to a breakdown in trust.

The immediate fallout from Bhumjaithai's departure is multifaceted. With the loss of 70 seats, the coalition's majority in parliament is now precarious. Pheu Thai and its remaining allies, including the Palang Pracharath Party and smaller factions, command around 250 seats, but this could be insufficient to pass critical legislation without opposition support or defections. Analysts predict that Paetongtarn may need to court new partners or independents to shore up her position, potentially diluting her party's agenda. "This is a classic case of Thai coalition politics unraveling under pressure," said Dr. Panitan Wattanayagorn, a political science professor at Chulalongkorn University. "The government will have to navigate carefully to avoid a no-confidence vote or dissolution of the house."

Paetongtarn responded to the announcement with a measured statement from Government House, expressing regret over the decision but affirming her commitment to governance. "We respect Bhumjaithai's choice and will continue to work for the betterment of Thailand," she said. Behind the scenes, sources close to the prime minister indicate that emergency meetings are underway to assess the damage and explore options for maintaining stability. Paetongtarn's leadership has already faced scrutiny due to her family's long-standing political legacy; her father, Thaksin, was ousted in a 2006 military coup, and her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, fled into exile after her government was toppled in 2014. This familial connection has both bolstered her support base among rural voters and fueled opposition from anti-Shinawatra factions.

The broader context of Thai politics adds layers to this development. The kingdom has experienced a cycle of coups, protests, and judicial interventions since the early 2000s, with the military and monarchy exerting significant influence. The 2023 elections were marked by high voter turnout and a surge in support for progressive parties like Move Forward, which won the most seats but was blocked from forming a government due to establishment resistance. Pheu Thai's coalition with former adversaries was seen as a pragmatic compromise, but it has alienated some of its progressive allies and the youth-led protest movement that demands democratic reforms.

Economically, the coalition's instability could exacerbate Thailand's challenges. The country is grappling with sluggish growth, high household debt, and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Bhumjaithai's exit might delay key initiatives, such as the digital wallet stimulus program aimed at injecting funds into the economy. Investors are watching closely, with the Stock Exchange of Thailand experiencing a slight dip following the news, reflecting concerns over policy continuity.

Reactions from opposition parties have been swift and pointed. The Move Forward Party, now rebranded as the People's Party after its dissolution by the court, called the split a symptom of deeper systemic issues. "This coalition was built on shaky foundations from the start," said party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut. "It's time for genuine reform, not more patchwork alliances." Meanwhile, conservative elements within the Palang Pracharath Party have expressed willingness to remain in the coalition, but only if their demands for greater influence are met.

Looking ahead, the coming weeks will be crucial for Paetongtarn's administration. A cabinet reshuffle seems inevitable, with vacancies in key ministries previously held by Bhumjaithai members needing to be filled. There is speculation that Paetongtarn might reach out to smaller parties or even elements of the opposition to broaden her base. However, any such moves could provoke backlash from her core supporters, who view alliances with military-backed groups as a betrayal of Pheu Thai's populist roots.

The departure also highlights the personal dynamics at play. Anutin Charnvirakul, a charismatic figure known for his straightforward style, has positioned Bhumjaithai as an independent force, potentially eyeing a stronger role in future elections. His party's strongholds in the northeast and central regions could make it a kingmaker in any upcoming political reconfiguration.

In the streets of Bangkok, public sentiment is mixed. Supporters of the government rally behind Paetongtarn, praising her efforts to address inequality, while critics argue that the coalition's fragility proves the need for systemic change. Protests, which have simmered since 2020, could reignite if the government appears weakened.

Ultimately, Bhumjaithai's exit from the coalition serves as a stark reminder of the precarious balance in Thai politics. As Paetongtarn navigates this crisis, the nation watches to see if her administration can weather the storm or if it will succumb to the same forces that have toppled previous governments. The path forward remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: Thailand's political landscape is once again in flux, with implications that could reshape the country's governance for years to come.

This development not only tests Paetongtarn's mettle as a leader but also underscores the enduring challenges of building lasting coalitions in a divided society. As negotiations unfold, the focus will be on whether compromise can prevail or if deeper divisions will lead to further instability.

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[ https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/thailand-pm-paetongtarn-bhumjaithai-party-leaves-coalition-5190076 ]