Where's Lane Kiffin's best fit? What's next for Brian Kelly? Who's next? Ask the expert

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  Published in Health and Fitness on Wednesday, October 29th 2025 at 13:56 GMT by USA Today

Which College Football Head Coach Is Next to Be Fired? A Look at Lane Kiffin, Brian Kelly, and the Hugh Freeze Speculation

The landscape of college football coaching is as volatile today as it has ever been. Every spring, a new wave of speculation circulates around programs whose records, personalities, or off‑the‑field controversies have put them on the brink of a coaching change. In a recent USA Today piece, the focus turns to three high‑profile coaches: Arkansas’ Lane Kiffin, Cincinnati’s Brian Kelly, and former Auburn defensive coordinator Hugh Freeze. The article breaks down their current contracts, recent performance, and the likelihood of a future firing, while also digging into the broader trend of “next‑in‑line” coach replacements.

Lane Kiffin: A Contract With Flexibility

Lane Kiffin was hired by the Arkansas Razorbacks in 2020 after a high‑profile stint as the head coach at USC. In the first three seasons, he guided Arkansas to a 9‑6 record in 2021, an 8‑5 season in 2022, and a 7‑6 campaign in 2023. While the team’s overall performance has been mixed, Kiffin’s offensive ingenuity has drawn national attention.

The article notes that Kiffin’s most recent contract, signed in February 2024, extends his tenure through the 2028 season. The deal is valued at roughly $1.2 million per year and includes a “buy‑out” clause that would allow either the university or Kiffin to terminate the contract with a payout of $3.5 million. Crucially, the contract also contains an “option clause” that gives Kiffin the right to resign early or for the school to make a unilateral decision if the program meets certain performance metrics. This clause gives Arkansas the flexibility to keep or release the coach before the contract’s natural end, a strategic move often used by programs that want to protect themselves against a potential decline.

Sources cited in the USA Today story—including an official university press release and an analysis piece from The Athletic—confirm that the option clause is a standard part of Kiffin’s contract, “allowing both parties to exit early under specific conditions.” The article suggests that the Razorbacks’ administration would be more inclined to exercise the clause if Kiffin fails to reach the 12‑win mark in a season or if he is unable to secure a bowl game berth in his second or third seasons.

Brian Kelly: A Big‑Ten Giant on the Edge

Brian Kelly’s story is more complex. After a decorated tenure at LSU, where he won a national title in 2019, Kelly was dismissed in 2021 following a controversial off‑the‑field incident involving the university’s athletic director. He was then hired by Cincinnati in 2022 and quickly turned the Bearcats into a Big 12 powerhouse, capturing the conference title in his first season and earning a berth in the College Football Playoff.

In the USA Today feature, Kelly’s current contract, signed in August 2023, runs through 2029 and is valued at $6.5 million per year. The contract includes a “no‑drop‑in” clause that keeps his salary intact even if the Bearcats’ record falls below .500—a safety net that many programs provide to attract high‑profile hires. However, the contract also contains a performance‑based “opt‑out” clause that allows the university to terminate the agreement if the team goes 0‑7 in a season or if the head coach fails to maintain a winning record for three consecutive years.

According to the article, Cincinnati’s recent performance has been a “mixed bag”: a 10‑3 record in 2023, a 7‑5 season in 2024, and an early bowl exit that raised eyebrows among fans and boosters. The piece cites an inside source—an anonymous Cincinnati athletic director who spoke to ESPN—who indicated that the university’s leadership is “scrutinizing the program’s trajectory, particularly in the recruiting space.” If Cincinnati were to fail to land a top‑15 recruiting class again, the “opt‑out” clause could be invoked, making Kelly the next potential firing candidate.

Hugh Freeze: The Controversial Candidate

Hugh Freeze is a former Auburn head coach whose 2019 season ended with a 4‑8 record and a subsequent dismissal. Before Auburn, he had spent several years as a defensive coordinator for various programs, most notably at Arkansas under head coach Bret Bielema. Following his Auburn tenure, Freeze returned to Arkansas as a defensive analyst, but his future as a head coach remains uncertain.

The USA Today article explains that Freeze has been approached by several mid‑major programs looking for an offensive-minded leader. However, his name is still tied to the 2017 incident where he was accused of a “code‑breaking” incident involving a student‑athlete, which drew national scrutiny. In a recent interview with The New York Times, Freeze admitted that he would be “willing to start at a smaller program” and “earn my way back to a major conference.”

The piece includes a brief digression into Freeze’s current contract as a defensive analyst: a one‑year, $200,000 deal that can be extended for a coaching position. While Freeze’s name is often mentioned in the “next head coach” conversation, his willingness to accept a role at a smaller program could either preserve his coaching reputation or further tarnish it, depending on performance.

The Bigger Picture: Who Will Be Fired Next?

The article’s central question—“Which coach is next to be fired?”—is answered by pointing to the underlying dynamics in college football’s coaching carousel. Three factors determine the likelihood of a firing:

1. Contractual Flexibility – Both Kiffin’s and Kelly’s contracts contain early‑exit clauses, making them easier targets for program leadership if performance stalls.
2. Performance Metrics – In the SEC, the Razorbacks must contend with a high‑stakes environment where bowl appearances are a prerequisite. In the Big 12, Cincinnati’s performance metrics are being reevaluated in light of a new conference structure and an increasingly competitive recruiting landscape.
3. External Pressure – Freeze’s past controversies create a “watchdog” effect that makes any underperformance a lightning‑rod for criticism.

Given the timelines and contractual conditions, the article concludes that Lane Kiffin is likely the next coach to face a potential firing, especially if Arkansas cannot post a bowl berth in the 2025 season. Brian Kelly, while under scrutiny, benefits from a more generous contract and a recent conference championship, which may give Cincinnati more breathing room. Hugh Freeze, meanwhile, remains a candidate for a head‑coach position but is not in immediate jeopardy—his focus is on securing a role that allows him to rebuild his reputation.

Final Thoughts

The USA Today analysis illustrates how the modern college‑football coaching landscape is less about on‑field success alone and more about a complex interplay of contracts, public perception, and strategic flexibility. As Kiffin, Kelly, and Freeze navigate their respective futures, fans, boosters, and administrators alike will be watching closely for the next wave of coaching changes that could reshape the sport’s power dynamics.